The stratospheric costs of The American Century

Also published at Resilience.org.

“Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun,” Chairman Mao famously stated in 1927.

Political power grows out of a barrel of oil – that’s an important theme in Daniel Yergin’s classic book The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power.

Political power, including the use of state violence, goes hand in hand with control of authorized currency – that’s one of the key lessons of David Graeber’s Debt: The First 5,000 Years.

Guns, energy, money – each of these factors of power comes to mind in reading the recently released book by John Dower, The Violent American Century: War And Terror Since World War Two. (Chicago, Haymarket Books, 2017)

This brief book keeps a tight focus: cataloguing the extent of violence associated with the US role as the world’s dominant superpower. Dower avoids many closely related questions, such as Which persons or sectors in the US benefit most from military conflict? or, Was there justification for any of the violent overseas adventures by US forces in the past 75 years? or, Might the world have been more, or less, violent if the US had not been the dominant superpower?

It may be easy to forget, in Canada or western Europe or especially in the United States, that wars big and small have been raging somewhere in the world nearly every year through our lifetimes. Dower’s book is prompted in part by the recently popularized notion that on a world historical scale, violence is recently at an all-time low. Stephen Pinker, in his 2011 book The Better Angels of Our Nature, marshaled both statistics and anecdotes to advance the view that “today we may be living in the most peaceable era in our species’ existence.”

Dower doesn’t try to definitively refute the idea of a “Long Peace”, but he does ask us to question widely held assumptions.

He begins with the important point that if you start with the unprecedented mass slaughter of World War II as a baseline, it’s easy to make a case that succeeding decades have been relatively peaceful.

Yet one of the key military strategies used by the US in World War II was retained in both practice and theory by subsequent US warlords – aerial bombardment of civilian populations.

By the time the United States began carpet-bombing Japan, ‘industrial war’ and psychological warfare were firmly wedded, and the destruction of enemy morale by deliberately targeting densely populated urban centers had become standard operating procedure. US air forces would later carry this most brutal of inheritances from World War Two to the populations of Korea and Indochina.” (The Violent American Century, pg 22)

The result of this policy carry-over was that

During the Korean War … the tonnage of bombs dropped by US forces was more than four times greater than had been dropped on Japan in 1945. … In the Vietnam War … an intensive US bombing campaign that eventually extended to Cambodia and Laos dropped more than forty times the tonnage of bombs used on Japan.” (The Violent American Century, pg 43)

The massive bombardments failed to produce unambiguous victories in Korea or in Indochina, but it’s hard to look at these wars and avoid the conclusion that the scope and scale of violence had remained terribly high.

Meanwhile US war planners were preparing for destruction on an even greater scale. Both US and Soviet nuclear forces held the capability of destroying all human life – and yet they continued to build more nuclear missiles and continued to discuss whether they would ever launch a first strike.

By the time of his retirement, former Strategic Air Command director General (George) Lee Butler had become an advocate of nuclear abolition. In his insider’s view, “mankind escaped the Cold War without a nuclear holocaust by some combination of diplomatic skill, blind luck and divine intervention, probably the latter in greatest proportion.”

Yet the danger remains. Even Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama, who stirred hopes for peace in 2009 by calling for abolition of nuclear weapons, left office having approved a $1 trillion, 30-year program of upgrading US nuclear weapons.

Though the Cold War ended without conflagration between the world’s major powers, a CIA tabulation listed 331 “Major Episodes of Political Violence” between 1946 and 2013. The US armed, financed and/or coached at least one side in scores of these conflicts, and participated more directly in dozens. This history leads Dower to conclude

Branding the long postwar era as an epoch of relative peace is disingenuous …. It also obscures the degree to which the United States bears responsibility for contributing to, rather than impeding, militarization and mayhem after 1945.” (The Violent American Century, pg 3)

Dower also notes that violence doesn’t always end in death – sometimes it leads to flight. In this regard the recent, rapid increase in numbers of refugees calls into question the idea of a new era of peace. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees recently reported that the number of forcibly displaced individuals “had surpassed sixty million and was the highest level recorded since World War Two and its immediate aftermath.”

The wages of war

Since the US victory in World War II, the nation has responded by building an ever larger, ever more extensive military presence around the world. By the early 2000s, according to former CIA consultant Chalmers Johnson, the US owned or rented more than 700 military bases in 130 countries.

Dower gives a brief tally of the financial costs to the US of this military occupation of the globe. In addition to the “base” defense department budget of about $600 billion per year, Dower says many extra expenses include “contingency” costs of engagements in the Middle East, care for veterans, the “black budget” for the CIA, and interest on the military component of the national debt, pushing the cost of the US military complex to around $1 trillion per year.

He concludes, “Creating a capacity for violence greater than the world has ever seen is costly – and remunerative.”

In coming installments of this essay we’ll consider especially those last three words: “costly and remunerative”. Who pays for and who benefits from the massive maintenance and exercise of military muscle, and over what time scale? In doing so, we’ll explore the interrelationships of three types of power: power from the barrel of a gun, power that comes from a barrel of oil, and power that comes from control of the monetary system.

Part Two of this series

Top photo: U.S. Air Force Republic F-105D Thunderchief fighters refuel from a Boeing KC-135A Stratotanker en route to North Vietnam in 1966. Photo in Wikimedia Commons is from US National Archives and Records Administration. A 2007 report for the Brookings Institution found that the Air Force alone used 52% of the fuel burned by the US government, and that all branches of the Department of Defense together burned 93% of US government fuel consumption. (“Department of Defense Energy Strategy: Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks”)

Pollination Nation

There are many beautiful flowers in the meadows and marshes this month, and the insects that visit the plants are photogenic in their own right.

For today’s post we venture to some of the farthest reaches of greater metropolitan Port Darlington – from the east end of West Beach Road out to the meadow beyond Westside Marsh.

The beautiful plant below is sometimes called Blueweed, sometimes Echium vulgare, but I think Viper’s Bugloss is more suitably dramatic. Whatever the name, it attracts a variety of bees in addition to the Virginia Ctenucha moth.

Virginia Ctenucha moth on Viper’s Bugloss. (click images for larger view)

 

Yellow flash.

These flowers also attract lots of honeybees and bumblebees.

Bee on Viper’s Bugloss.

Just across the road from the stand of Viper’s Bugloss is a wetland meadow. Here the often-loathed Canada Thistles are showing just how tough they are. Even though they’ve been standing in at least 15 centimeters of water for the past six weeks, they are still coming into bloom.

Thistle in flooded meadow.

Four little flyers, ranging from about 1 centimeter to perhaps 2 millimeters in length, are attracted to this single thistle blossom.

Quartet.

Wading through head-high grass and flowers beyond the Westside Marsh, I saw a flash of orange which I mistook for a moth. After tracking it through the thicket and waiting for it to settle long enough to be photographed, I learned it was not a moth but a butterfly; just a frayed Freija Fritillary I’m afraid.

Freija fritillary.

 

Among the profusion of flowers here were yellow salsify, pink wild roses, white daisies, and lots of marsh marigold, below.

Goldbug.

As far as I know damselflies are not pollinators, but the beautiful specimen below was a thrill to spot nevertheless. The Tule Bluet frequents marshes across much of Ontario, and this one was just a stone’s throw from the waters of Westside Marsh.

Tule Bluet.

 

Top photo: Redhead click here for larger view.  This unidentified pollinator was spotted visiting American Bittersweet flowers. If you know the identity of this insect please drop me a note using the Contact page.

 

Energy And Civilization: a review

Also published at Resilience.org and BiophysEco.

If you were to find yourself huddled with a small group of people in a post-crash, post-internet world, hoping to recreate some of the comforts of civilization, you’d do well to have saved a printed copy of Vaclav Smil’s Energy and Civilization: A History.

Smil’s new 550-page magnum opus would help you understand why for most applications a draft horse is a more efficient engine than an ox – but only if you utilize an effective harness, which is well illustrated. He could help you decide whether building a canal or a hard-topped road would be a more productive use of your energies. When you were ready to build capstans or block-and-tackle mechanisms for accomplishing heavy tasks, his discussion and his illustrations would be invaluable.

But hold those thoughts of apocalypse for a moment. Smil’s book is not written as a doomer’s handbook, but as a thorough guide to the role of energy conversions in human history to date. Based on his 1994 book Energy in World History, the new book is about 60% longer and includes 40% more illustrations.

Though the initial chapters on prehistory are understandably brief, Smil lays the groundwork with his discussion of the dependency of all living organisms on their ability to acquire enough energy in usable forms.

The earliest humanoids had some distinct advantages and liabilities in this regard. Unlike other primates, humans evolved to walk on two feet all the time, not just occasionally. Ungainly though this “sequence of arrested falls” may be, “human walking costs about 75% less energy than both quadrupedal and bipedal walking in chimpanzees.” (Energy and Civilization, pg 22)

What to do with all that saved energy? Just think:

The human brain claims 20–25% of resting metabolic energy, compared to 8–10% in other primates and just 3–5% in other mammals.” (Energy and Civilization, pg 23)

In his discussion of the earliest agricultures, a recurring theme is brought forward: energy availability is always a limiting factor, but other social factors also come into play throughout history. In one sense, Smil explains, the move from foraging to farming was a step backwards:

Net energy returns of early farming were often inferior to those of earlier or concurrent foraging activities. Compared to foraging, early farming usually required higher human energy inputs – but it could support higher population densities and provide a more reliable food supply.” (Energy and Civilization, pg 42)

The higher population densities allowed a significant number of people to work at tasks not immediately connected to securing daily energy requirements. The result, over many millennia, was the development of new materials, tools and processes.

Smil gives succinct explanations of why the smelting of brass and bronze was less energy-intensive than production of pure copper. Likewise he illustrates why the iron age, with its much higher energy requirements, resulted in widespread deforestation, and iron production was necessarily very limited until humans learned to exploit coal deposits in the most recent centuries.

Cooking snails in a pot over an open fire. In Energy and Civilization, Smil covers topics as diverse as the importance of learning to use fire to supply the energy-rich foods humans need; the gradual deployment of better sails which allowed mariners to sail closer to the wind; and the huge boost in information consumption that occurred a century ago due to a sudden drop in the energy cost of printing. This file comes from Wellcome Images, a website operated by Wellcome Trust, a global charitable foundation based in the United Kingdom, via Wikimedia Commons.

Energy explosion

The past two hundred years of fossil-fuel-powered civilization takes up the biggest chunk of the book. But the effective use of fossil fuels had to be preceded by many centuries of development in metallurgy, chemistry, understanding of electromagnetism, and a wide array of associated technologies.

While making clear how drastically human civilizations have changed in the last several generations, Smil also takes care to point out that even the most recent energy transitions didn’t take place all at once.

While the railways were taking over long-distance shipments and travel, the horse-drawn transport of goods and people dominated in all rapidly growing cities of Europe and North America.” (Energy and Civilization, pg 185)

Likewise the switches from wood to coal or from coal to oil happened only with long overlaps:

The two common impressions – that the twentieth century was dominated by oil, much as the nineteenth century was dominated by coal – are both wrong: wood was the most important fuel before 1900 and, taken as a whole, the twentieth century was still dominated by coal. My best calculations show coal about 15% ahead of crude oil …” (Energy and Civilization, pg 275)

Smil draws an important lesson for the future from his careful examination of the past:

Every transition to a new form of energy supply has to be powered by the intensive deployment of existing energies and prime movers: the transition from wood to coal had to be energized by human muscles, coal combustion powered the development of oil, and … today’s solar photovoltaic cells and wind turbines are embodiments of fossil energies required to smelt the requisite metals, synthesize the needed plastics, and process other materials requiring high energy inputs.” (Energy and Civilization, pg 230)

A missing chapter

Energy and Civilization is a very ambitious book, covering a wide spread of history and science with clarity. But a significant omission is any discussion of the role of slavery or colonialism in the rise of western Europe.

Smil does note the extensive exploitation of slave energy in ancient construction works, and slave energy in rowing the war ships of the democratic cities in ancient Greece. He carefully calculates the power output needed for these projects, whether supplied by slaves, peasants, or animals.

In his look at recent European economies, Smil also notes the extensive use of physical and child labour that occurred simultaneously with the growth of fossil-fueled industry. For example, he describes the brutal work conditions endured by women and girls who carried coal up long ladders from Scottish coal mines, in the period before effective machinery was developed for this purpose.

But what of the 20 million or more slaves taken from Africa to work in the European colonies of the “New World”? Did the collected energies of all these unwilling participants play no notable role in the progress of European economies?

Likewise, vast quantities of resources in the Americas, including oil-rich marine mammals and old-growth forests, were exploited by the colonies for the benefit of European nations which had run short of these important energy commodities. Did this sudden influx of energy wealth play a role in European supremacy over the past few centuries? Attention to such questions would have made Energy and Civilization a more complete look at our history.

An uncertain future

Smil closes the book with a well-composed rumination on our current predicaments and the energy constraints on our future.

While the timing of transition is uncertain, Smil leaves little doubt that a shift away from fossil fuels is necessary, inevitable, and very difficult. Necessary, because fossil fuel consumption is rapidly destabilizing our climate. Inevitable, because fossil fuel reserves are being depleted and will not regenerate in any relevant timeframe. Difficult, both because our industrial economies are based on a steady growth in consumption, and because much of the global population still doesn’t have access to a sufficient quantity of energy to provide even the basic necessities for a healthy life.

The change, then, should be led by those who are now consuming quantities of energy far beyond the level where this consumption furthers human development.

Average per capita energy consumption and the human development index in 2010. Smil, Energy and Civilization, pg 363

 

Smil notes that energy consumption rises in correlation with the Human Development Index up to a point. But increases in energy use beyond, roughly the level of present-day Turkey or Italy, provide no significant boost in Human Development. Some of the ways we consume a lot of energy, he argues, are pointless, wasteful and ineffective.

In affluent countries, he concludes,

Growing energy use cannot be equated with effective adaptations and we should be able to stop and even to reverse that trend …. Indeed, high energy use by itself does not guarantee anything except greater environmental burdens.

Opportunities for a grand transition to less energy-intensive society can be found primarily among the world’s preeminent abusers of energy and materials in Western Europe, North America, and Japan. Many of these savings could be surprisingly easy to realize.” (Energy and Civilization, pg 439)

Smil’s book would indeed be a helpful post-crash guide – but it would be much better if we heed the lessons, and save the valuable aspects of civilization, before apocalypse overtakes us.

 

Top photo: Common factory produced brass olive oil lamp from Italy, c. late 19th century, adapted from photo on Wikimedia Commons.

salsify etcetera

The colours of June: they’re often at their most intense at the smallest scales. Today’s photos feature wild and cultivated beauties growing around the yard right now.

Yellow salsify goes by many aliases. Goat’s beard. Johnnie-go-to-bed-at-noon (for its flower’s habit of opening in the early morning sunshine, but folding back into a bud in the midday heat). Oysterplant (for the taste of its root). Foragers say the buds and the roots are a delicious wild edible, but ours are scarce and so we’re happy to leave them grow in the meadow.

Yellow Salsify II (click images for larger view)

In the flower garden the cultivated irises are currently providing the most vivid splash of colour.

blue as midnight

 

all that glitters

The daisy fleabane, below, does well in full sun on our sandy dune. Although its ability to repel fleas is disputed it apparently attracts many other insects, as it is visited by a wide variety of pollinators.

pink wind

 

A few days of bright sunshine are enough to dry the small mushrooms that popped up in our rock garden, fracturing some into distinctly floral patterns.

rock garden

Along a fenceline a wild raspberry has taken root and is spreading rapidly. Time will tell if it bears delicious fruit, or merely delights us with the colour and texture of its leaves.

 

raspberry hedge

 

Top photo: Yellow Salsify Iclick here for larger view

birds birds birds

Today’s post features just a few of the birds seen in the waters, on the shore, and in the treetops in recent weeks in our neighbourhood.

Dive (click images for larger views)

 

Angles

 

Swimming in green

 

Perched

 

Killdeer in dune grass

 

Rocky shore

 

Portrait

 

Night falls

 

Motion studies, or Thanks for all the fish